Chicago and Kansas City Wheat futures saw a choppy day of trade, but ended with slight to moderate gains. Minneapolis enjoyed double-digit gains most of the day, with the exception being the front-month contract, which ended 0.27 lower amid liquidation. Wheat largely followed Corn today, with late-session strength in the Corn market pulling Wheat higher.
Corn futures rallied into the close to finish near their highs. July Corn closed 0.15 higher, while the September through July 2013 contracts ended with gains of 0.155 to 0.30. Traders were again focused on building weather premium today as the 6-10 day forecast calls for heat to build in the Corn Belt with limited precip chances.
Soybean futures were briefly firmer today, but ended near session lows to finish mostly 0.1025 to 0.1425 lower. Profit-taking was the center of traders' attention today following yesterday's sharp gains. Choppy outside markets provided traders little concrete direction, although investors are nervous as they do not expect this week's meeting among Eurozone leaders to provide an immediate solution to the bloc's debt worries
Hog futures favored a weaker tone in mixed trade, with July closing up 30 cents, August through February contracts down 0.15 to 0.40 and far deferred's steady to firmer. Nearby futures posted a high-range close, as traders recognize the sharp discount those contracts hold to the cash index raising ideas recent losses have been overdone.
Live Cattle futures ended low range with losses of 0.125 to 0.70. Futures saw some follow through selling today as traders were not impressed by this morning's mixed boxed Beef prices. Choice values firmed $1.18 while Select cuts slipped 0.09; movement was solid at 100 loads. Plus, last week's Cattle on Feed Report has them expecting supplies to increase over the near term.
US Agriculture Weather Outlook
Major Driver - El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)**
Corn and Soybean planting began very early this year and progressed at a near record pace thanks to record warmth across the central US.
Corn and Soybean planting progressed well ahead of the 5 yr average and much faster than last year's pace, when heavy Spring rains and melting snow cover slowed planting in the northern Plains and Ohio Valley
CropCAST expects planted acreage for corn to increase from USDA's March report, but Soybean acreage to be near or slightly below USDA's March estimate.
**El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. The Southern Oscillation refers to variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (warming and cooling known as El Niño and La Niña respectively) and in air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. The two variations are coupled: the warm oceanic phase, El Niño, accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific, while the cold phase, La Niña, accompanies low air surface pressure in the eastern Pacific. Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.