Wheat Market Recap
Dec Wheat finished off 6.75 at 591.50, 10.50 off the high and + 7 from the low.
Mar Wheat closed down 5.75 at 609. This was + 8.50 from the low and 9.25 off the high.
Dec Wheat closed moderately lower on the session and is now down as much as 0.7475 from the Nov highs.
Continued competition on exports and weakness in outside market forces helped to pressure the market to sharply lower on the session early in the day but the market managed to climb back to close + 0.07 from the lows.
The rise in the USD and weakness across many commodity markets plus a sharp break in the stock market helped drive the market lower early in the session and down to the lowest level since June of Y 2010.
Egypt bought 240,000 tons of wheat from the Black Sea providers Saturday at what was considered a cheap price.
Weekly export inspections came in at just 11.59-M bu which was lower than expected and lower than the 18.8-M bu necessary each week to reach the USDA forecast for the season.
Syria announced an optional origin Wheat tender for 100,000 tons of Wheat.
The weekend COT report showed that as of November 15th, trend following fund traders (non-commercial less index funds) had already reached a net Short position close to the record high at 74,755 contracts.
Dec Minneapolis Wheat closed down 0.2075 on the session to push to the lowest level since October 18th.
Corn Market Recap
Dec Corn finished off 12.50 at 597.75, 13.50 off the high and + 4.50 from the low.
Mar Corn closed down 13 at 605. This was + 4.50 from the low and 13.75 off the high.
Dec Corn closed sharply lower on the session and is now down as much as 0.7275 off of the November 9th high with Dec Corn now down in 7 of 8 trading sessions since the Bullish USDA November crop update.
Funds were noted as aggressive sellers again Monday with a Long liquidation selling trend noted for many Key commodity markets including Gold and Copper.
Weakness across a wide spectrum of commodity markets based on increasingly Bearish macro economic forces plus talk of the hefty net long position from fund traders helped to drive the market sharply lower on the session and down to the lowest level since October 5th.
Dec Y 2012 Corn pushed down to the lowest level since March 31st this morning on continued fears of increased planted area for next year.
Weekly export inspections came in at 37.56-M bu which was higher than expected and higher than the 34.56-M bu necessary each week to reach the USDA forecast for the season.
Cumulative shipments have reached just 18.5% of the export forecast for the season as compared with 22.7% as the 5-yr average for this time of the year.
The Commitments of Traders reports as of November 15th showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 220,608 contracts, a decrease of 18,381 contracts for the week and the selling trend is seen as a short-term negative force.
Commodity Index traders held a net Long position of 331,695 contracts, the lowest since late Y 2009. Ethanol plant profit margins for an average Iowa plant last week jumped to $2.15 per bu which is the highest since January 5th of Y 2007 as energy prices rallied last week and Corn values fell.
Open interest was down 22,345 contracts for the Dec futures to 321,122 contracts.
January Rice finished down 0.225 at 14.455, 0.115 off the high and equal to the low.
Soybean Complex Market Recap
Jan Soybean finished down 20.25 at 1148, 26.25 off the high and + 3 from the low.
Mar Soybean closed down 20.25 at 1158. This was + 2.75 from the low and 25.75 off the high.
Dec Soymeal closed down 8.8 at 289.6. This was + 0.1 from the low and 7.9 off the high.
Dec Soybean Oil finished down 0.99 at 49.89, 1.11 off the high and + 0.38 from the low.
Jan Soybean put in the entire range of the day in the 1st 30 minutes of trade and closed more than 0.20 down on the day.
The early break pushed the market to the lowest level since November 23rd of Y 2010 and the market closed near the lows.
Commercial traders suggested interest from China on the break due to more profitable crush margins. A Bearish view on the Global economy and fears that the lack of progress on the US debt issue and continued debt issues in Europe may lead to recessionary pricing into early Y 2012 helped to drive Soybean and most commodity markets sharply lower on the day.
Strength in the USS, weakness in energy and equity markets contributed to a continued selling trend from speculators.
Good weather for South America and ideas that US planted area will rise again in Y 2012 were also seen as negative forces.
Weekly export inspections came in at 40.76-M bu which was down from 54.05-M bu last week but still well above the 23.5-M bu necessary each week to reach the USDA forecast for the season.
Traders expected exports near 45-50-M bu so the news was considered negative.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.