US Agriculture (Grains) Market Report
Wheat Market Recap
Mar Wheat finished down 2 at 614, 15.25 off the high and + 7 from the low.
Jul Wheat closed down 1.75 at 642. This was + 7.25 up from the low and 14.50 off the high.
After Strong early session gains, Wheat closed lower on the day.
Funds were active buyers early in the session to drive the market sharply higher and to a new 8-session high for the March contracts.
New crop July KC Wheat closed 0.085 lower on the session and down 0.1775 from the early highs,
Talk of 3-8 inches of Snow for parts of the southern plains and rain in the forecast for other parts of the plains may have helped to pressure the market.
Once the Short-covering from fund traders dried up early in the day, the market pushed to slightly lower on the session.
Talk that the winter Wheat crop in Russia for Y 2012 will expand from this year added to the negative tone.
Tunisia bought 75,000 tons of durum Wheat at their tender today. Deliveries on 1st notice day were 440 contracts.
March Oats closed up 12.50 at 320. This was + 19.75 from the low and equal to the high.
Corn Market Recap
Mar Corn finished + 2.50 at 608, 8 off the high and + 13 from the low.
May Corn closed up 2.75 at 615.25. This was + 13.25 up from the low and 7.25 off the high.
Mar Corn closed slightly higher on the session but near 0.10 off of the early highs.
The market saw solid early session gains, but there was not a lot of follow-through buying.
Riskier assets came into favor with the sharp break in the USD and a strong move higher in equity and energy markets.
Central banks pumped liquidity into Europe plus news of China easing their monetary policy plus better than expected economic news helped to support the stock market and selected other commodity markets but a turn lower in Wheat, and some talk that the extraordinary measures by central banks and governments to supply the World with liquidity might suggests that the economy is in worse shape than expected brought a cautious tone for many players.
There were no deliveries against the Dec Corn on 1st notice day today.
The early rally pushed the market to a 6-session high.
News of potential higher production in South America plus Global economic concerns pushed Mar Corn to as low as 595 in overnight action.
The Argentina's Agriculture Ministry sees 2011/12 Corn production at a record high 30-M tons as compared with the previous record of 22.5-M tons. The USDA adjusted Argentina production to 29.00-M tons in November from 27.5-M in October.
Ethanol production for the week ending November 25th averaged 930,000 BPD. This is + 1.4% vs. last week and up 5.08% vs. last year. Total Ethanol production for the week was 6.51-M bbls which is the highest weekly total since December 10th of Y 2010 and close to the record of 6.573-M bbls. Corn used in last week's production is estimated at 99.07-M bu as compared with 96.1-M bu necessary each week to meet this crop year's USDA estimate of 5-M bu. Stocks were 17.046-M bbls, down 2.3% vs. last week and down 0.37% vs. last year.
Jan Rice finished up 0.465 at 14.835, equal to the high and + 0.285 from the low.
Soybean Complex Market Recap
Jan Soybean finished + 6.25 at 1131.25, 14.75 off the high and + 19.75 from the low.
Mar Soybean closed up 6 at 1141. This was + 19.50 from the low and 14.25 off the high.
Jan Soymeal closed + 4.2 at 292.2. This was + 6.9 from the low and 0.8 off the high.
Jan Soybean Oil finished + 0.07 at 49.5, 0.75 off the high and + 0.93 from the low.
Jan Soybean closed moderately higher on the session but near 0.12 off of the early highs.
A combination of a sharp drop in the USD, easing monetary policy in China and Central Bank stimulus efforts in Europe helped to drive Soybeans and many other markets sharply higher early in the session Wednesday.
A strong rise in equity and energy markets helped support more active buying too.
Egypt bought 33,000 tons of Sunflower Oil and 6,000 tons of Soybean Oil at a tender overnight.
The early rally pushed Soybeans to a 4-session high.
Some talk that dryness is beginning to be a concern in parts of Mato Grosso Brazil added to the positive tone in the morning. But, mid-day weather models added more rains in Argentina and Brazil over the next week. In addition, Southern Brazil rain coverage was increased into mid-December.
Funds were noted buyers of Soybeans and the products early today, but the buying faded into the close. For 1st notice day, Soymeal deliveries were 116 contracts and Soybean Oil deliveries were 1,824, as were expected.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.