US Agriculture Market Report

Wheat Market Recap

Mar Wheat finished + 11.25 at 625.50, 6.50 off the high and + 14 from the low.

Jul Wheat closed + 8.50 at 654. This was + 11 1/2 from the low and 7.50 off the high.

Mar Wheat closed 0.1125 higher on the session and managed to rally 0.3650 for the week.

After some choppy trade early in the session, a continued positive tilt to outside markets and strength in other commodity markets helped spark another round of new buying and Short-covering to drive the market to the highest level since November 17th.

News from the Ukraine that the Y 2012 winter Wheat crop might total just 8.5-M tons from 22.2-M this year helped to drive the market sharply higher.

A shift in the US dollar trend from lower to higher and some profit taking in the stock market and other commodity markets took the market off the highs.

At one point, March KC wheat traded as much as 0.1975 higher on the day.

A winter storm is expected to improve the moisture in the soil for the US southern and central plains in the US with 3 to 6 ins of snow expected.

March Oats closed down 5 at 315. This was 2 1/4 up from the low and 4 3/4 off the high.

Corn Market Recap
Mar Corn finished down 6.25 at 595.25, 10.50 off the high and + 1.50 from the low.

May Corn closed down 6.25 at 603. This was + 1.25 from the low and 10 off the high.

Mar Corn closed 0.0625 lower on the session which left the market + 0.0525 for the week.

The market saw some early support from a positive tone of outside market forces but plenty of negative news for Corn exporters plus a big rise in China Corn production overnight helped spark a selling trend and lower prices into the mid-session.

The selling occurred despite a turn sharply higher in Wheat as support from outside markets faded and focus shifted to the short-term demand issues.

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported corn production at 191.75-M tons this year which is up sharply from the current USDA estimate of 184.5-M tons and up from 177.25-M last year and 163.9-M 2 yrs ago.

Traders see Mexico buying soft red Wheat from the US, Spain buying feed wheat from Brazil and Vietnam buying Australia feed wheat as examples of lost business for US Corn exporters.

The shift from moderately lower to moderately higher in the USD added to the negative tone.

Jan Rice finished down 0.32 at 14.455, 0.145 off the high and 0.035 up from the low.

Soybean Complex Market Recap
Jan Soybean finished + 7.75 at 1135.75, 8.75 off the high and + 7.50 from the low.

Mar Soybean closed + 7.75 at 1146.25. This was + 7.50 from the low and 8.50 off the high.

Jan Soymeal closed down 0.7 at 288.3. This was + 1.0 from the low and 3.6 off the high.

Jan Soybean Oil finished up 0.55 at 50.25, 0.1 off the high and + 0.6 from the low.

Jan Soybean closed 0.0775 higher on the session and managed to gain 0.2925 for the week.

The early rally pushed the market up just short of Wednesday's and this week's highs but a shift from lower to higher in the USD helped to spark the set-back off of the highs.

Jan Soybean Oil pushed higher and to the highest level since November 23rd, and Soymeal inched higher but stayed inside of Thursday's range and pushed lower on the session late in the day.

Weakness in Corn and ideas that livestock producers are using less Soymeal and more Wheat in rations has been seen as a limiting factor for meal. In addition, talk of lower export projections for Soybean and a subsequent higher ending stocks estimate from the USDA for the December supply/demand update for next week was seen as a factor to limit buying in Soybean.

Hog Market Recap

Feb Hogs closed 105 lower on the session and down 257 for the week. The market traded slightly higher early today following other commodity markets higher and finding some support from the bounce-back in ham prices late yesterday.

But, selling came in as outside markets became less supportive with a turn higher in the USD and this drove the market moderately lower on the session and down to the lowest level since November 17th.

Cash Hogs were steady to 0.50 lower at terminals. Iowa/Minnesota direct trade for the morning came in at an average price of $83.94 which is down 1.39 and this added to the negative tone.

Pork production for the week was estimated at 490.7-M lbs which was up 1.3% from last year.

Cattle Market Recap
Feb Cattle closed 47 lower on the session after 1st moving to the highest level since November 17th but the market managed to hold on for a gain of 95 pts on the week.

The market pushed sharply higher on the session early in the day as adverse weather in the plains and a strong run higher in the stock market helped to support. But, a turn from lower to higher in the USD and a set-back in metal and energy markets from early strong gains helped to pull the market back to near unchanged into the mid-session.

Boxed-Beef cut-out values at mid-session came in at 191.71 which was down 1.55 from Thursday and down from 196.23 last week at this time. Beef production for the week was estimated at 513.2-M lbs which was down 3.1% from last year.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.