-EURUSD resistance at 1.3415
-GBPUSD triangle, support below 1.40
-AUDUSD and NZDUSD sell off - tops in place?
-USDCHF support at 1.1350
Euro / US Dollar
My working assumption is that a wave 2 high is in place at 1.3740 (within what will be a 5 wave decline from 1.4723). Ultimately, the EURUSD is in a long term bear that likely lasts for a few years. That is not to say that there will not be rallies along the way. Near term, 5 waves may be nearing completion from 1.3640. Look to sell rallies... the breakdown level at 1.3416 is resistance.
British Pound / US Dollar
Price action since 1.35 is a 4th wave that will end as either a triangle or flat. I wrote last week that since it looks as though the EURUSD long term decline has resumed, a triangle (see arrows) is more likely. IF a triangle is underway, then wave D is working lower towards 1.40 now. Cable is following the triangle path...we'll look for it to play out. It is unlikely that I'll advocate trades in the GBPUSD for a number of weeks since the pair is in a correction.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Price action in the AUDUSD since the October 2008 low has carved out what could be a head and shoulders continuation pattern. This is pure speculation at this point but the ‘look' is there. For the last 3 days, the pair has been testing the left shoulder level. Staying below .7050 keeps the short term trend pointed lower. The AUDUSD drop has accelerated. Once I see 5 waves down from .7093, a top in AUDUSD will be confirmed.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
I wrote last week that there is a count in the NZDUSD that calls for a wave 2 high to form before .6090. If this is to occur, then a high should form within the next few days. Short term structure favors a push above .5753 in order to complete wave c of an expanded flat. Kiwi is 200 pips off of the high and price has broken below a short term support line. Bears can move risk to .58 (last week's high) and short term resistance is at .5670-.5715.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The longer term USDJPY decline may have resumed. The advance from 87.09 is in 3 waves and price has dropped below the wave A high at 94.67, confirming that the decline is in 3 waves (and can not become an impulse). Favor the downside as long as price is below 99. Above there and the USDJPY likely tests the 200 day SMA just below 100.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Since the USDCAD did exceed its wave 3 terminus on March 9, it is possible that wave 5 within a 5 wave advance from the 2007 low is complete. Near term structure is not especially clear but price above 1.2139 keeps the short term trend pointed up.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Like the EURUSD, the USDCHF may have resumed its longer term trend towards USD strength. Near term, bulls are in control as long as price is above 1.2222. Look to buy a dip near 1.1350.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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