This is article is released weekdays under the heading Daily Fundamentals at 5pm EST on www.dailyfx.com
Forex market event for the week ahead is centered predominantly in the US, as consumer confidence, existing/new home sales, durable goods orders, and GDP revisions will all be released.
The US dollar lost some of its luster as a safe-haven asset last week, so it will be important to gauge the status of risk trends to see if the currency has experienced a longer-term term break in correlations. Adding to the mix, Euro-zone CPI is projected to hit a record low, which could ultimately weigh on the euro.
• US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (MAY) - May 26
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for the month of May is forecasted to continue rising from its record low of 25.3 reached in February up to 43.0. With record keeping having begun in 1967, the steady plunge in sentiment from the 2007 highs of 111.90 makes the extent of the recession especially clear. Nevertheless, a surprisingly strong result could provide a boost to risky assets, as the move would indicate that sentiment may have bottomed out. However, if consumer confidence goes little changed or rises right in line with expectations, the news is unlikely to evoke any reaction from the markets.
• NAR US Existing Home Sales (APR) - May 27
On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is anticipated to report that existing home sales rose 2.0 percent in April to an annual pace of 4.66 million from 4.57 million. However, there are indications that the results could prove to be disappointing as the Commerce Department reported on May 19 that housing starts plunged by 12.8 percent during the month of April, and a whopping 54.2 percent from a year earlier, to a record low annual pace of 458,000. Likewise, new building permits slumped 3.3 percent in April, and 50.2 percent from a year earlier, to 494,000.
• US Durable Goods Orders (APR) - May 28
The upcoming release of US durable goods orders are projected to show that domestic demand may have increased slightly at the start of Q2, as they are forecasted to have risen 0.5 percent in April, but excluding transportation the index is anticipated to fall 0.3 percent. While the headline result will have the most impact on forex trading, the markets should keep an eye on non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, as this number serves as a leading indicator for business investment. The three-month annualized figures remain deeply negative, but the monthly component has improved over the past two months and a continuation of this dynamic would be supportive of outlooks for a slow recovery in the US economy.
• Euro-zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAY) - May 29
On Friday, Eurostat is expected to report that annual CPI growth in the Euro-zone slowed to a 0.2 percent pace in May from 0.6 percent. This would mark a record low for the index, and the big concern here is that the persistent drop in prices signals how great the downside risks are for inflation, in that it could quickly turn into deflation. The European Central Bank has acknowledged that CPI could turn negative for a few months this year, but if we start to see the index contract more from month to month, the euro is likely to respond accordingly.
• US GDP Annualized (QoQ) (1Q P) - May 29
The second round of US Q1 GDP estimates are due to hit the wires, and the results could be market-moving. The preliminary reading is forecasted to be revised up to -5.5 percent from -6.1 percent, which also marks an improvement when compared to the Q4 2008 result of -6.3 percent. There is some evidence that revisions will be to the downside, though. First, the US trade deficit widened for the first time in eight months during March by 5.5 percent to $27.6 billion. A breakdown of the report showed that exports slumped 2.4 percent to a more than two-year low of $123.62 billion while imports fell 1.0 percent to $151.196 billion. According to Bloomberg News, the Commerce Department used a much larger increase in exports when calculating Q1 GDP, suggesting that initial estimates of a 6.1 percent annual contraction may have been optimistic. Also, personal consumption is forecasted to be adjusted to 2.0 percent from 2.2 percent after March advance retail sales were revised down to -1.3 percent from -1.1 percent.
See the DailyFX Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators.
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