-EURUSD breaking false channel
-GBPUSD large triangle may be unfolding
-AUDUSD and NZDUSD important tops in place?
-USDCHF rallies from 200 day SMA
Euro / US Dollar
I put an alert out at the NY close yesterday showing this same chart and wrote that since last Thursday, the EURUSD has quietly made a series of lower highs and lower lows. Price has traded more or less sideways but the beginning of trends are usually tough to recognize. Coming under 1.3418 (this week's low) could lead to a sharp sell off towards highs (and breakout levels) in February at 1.31 and 1.30. Price broke 1.3418 early this morning and that level may provide resistance going forward. Sell rallies.
British Pound / US Dollar
Price action since 1.35 is a 4th wave that will end as either a triangle or flat. Since it looks as though the EURUSD long term decline has resumed, a triangle (see arrows) is probably more likely. IF a triangle is underway, then wave D is working lower towards 1.40 now.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Price action in the AUDUSD since the October 2008 low has carved out what could be a head and shoulders continuation pattern. This is pure speculation at this point but the ‘look' is there. For the last 3 days, the pair has been testing the left shoulder level. Staying below .7050 keeps the short term trend pointed lower.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
The NZDUSD is in a position similar to that of the AUDUSD. I wrote yesterday that there is a count in the NZDUSD that calls for a wave 2 high to form before .6090. If this is to occur, then a high should form within the next few days. Short term structure favors a push above .5753 in order to complete wave c of an expanded flat. Kiwi is about 100 pips off of its high in what may be the beginning of a larger decline.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The longer term USDJPY decline may have resumed. The advance from 87.09 is in 3 waves and price has dropped below the wave A high at 94.67, confirming that the decline is in 3 waves (and can not become an impulse). Favor the downside as long as price is below 99. Above there and the USDJPY likely tests the 200 day SMA just below 100.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Since the USDCAD did exceed its wave 3 terminus on March 9, it is possible that wave 5 within a 5 wave advance from the 2007 low is complete. Near term structure is not especially clear but price above 1.2239 keeps the short term trend pointed up.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
Like the EURUSD, the USDCHF may have resumed it's longer term trend towards USD strength. Near term, bulls are in control as long as price is above 1.2222. Look to buy a dip near 1.1350.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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