U.S. Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

USD/JPY Analysis and Outlook


About US Dollar-Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Analysis

(Please refer daily currency charts and not short-term charts e.g. hourly charts. All technical analysis indicators for the weekly USD/JPY outlook are based on the daily forex charts and in some cases 4-hourly charts. The trading strategies and forecast is based on the technical and fundamental outlook.)


USD/JPY Forecast


Previous Outlook of USD/JPY:

" 2 Weeks Back: With these supports holding, on the upside, any decisive break over 82.83 should take USD/JPY to retest the high of March 14th i.e. 84.18. This level will also bring the psychological resistance of approaching 85.00 level.”


USD/JPY Outlook For This Week:

Please check the relative strengths of recent economic releases and technical indications at following links as the base of this week's forecast of USD/JPY. We recommend to check the economic strength meter on Fundamental Outlook page.
USD/JPY Fundamental OutlookUSD/JPY Technical Outlook


US Dollar - Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) remained into a volatile sideways mode mainly above 83.80 and below 84.50. There were a couple of attempts to break above this range when the pair went as high as 84.61 but could not sustain. The weekly closing was at 84.23.

The price action clearly indicates that though the near-term bullish sentiments are in picture but the psychological resistive effect of 85.00 has come into the picture. Please note that 85.00 is a very strong psychological level and the previous break of that was almost 21 months back when USD/JPY had gone as high as 85.52 on April 5th, 2011 and then had failed to sustain. The next attempt was almost 1 year after that on March 14th, 2012 when the currency pair had gone as high as 84.18 and then had failed miserably. On one hand the psychological pressure of 85.00 is in play but on the other hand, the price action has been over 84.20 for a good amount of time and that clearly goes into the favor of underlying bullish sentiments for the near-term.

Considering the above, initially we stay neutral and in case a break below 83.80 takes place then we would expect some more downward consolidation towards the support zone of 83.15/83.30 during the next week. This support is derived from a combination of 22-day EMA and Kijun line support of daily Ichimoku cloud. On the downside any decisive break below this support zone will start neutralizing the near-term bullish outlook but a better indication of the same will come if USD/JPY breaks below 82.50.

If the immediate supports, as mentioned above, hold and any decisive break above 84.61 takes place then we would expect a test of 85.00 psychological level and a break of that and any sustained price action above 85.00 should take USD/JPY towards 85.50/85.52 resistance of April, 2011.

Overall, please note that we will be taking any upward gains just as consolidations till any decisive break of 85.51 (the high of April 2011) does not take place. 

USD/JPY Trading Strategies:


As mentioned above, initially we stay neutral and expect some more downward consolidation if a break below 83.80 takes place but our stop-loss will not be above 84.61 for any short-selling position. We may also go for buying near the immediate supports mentioned but again the stop-loss will be tight and just a few pips below each support mentioned.

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For short term currency trades, please refer to daily technical analysis for US Dollars-Japanese Yen at USD/JPY analysis. Please also share and check any real-time trades of US Dollar-Yen in Forum. You may also check the USD JPY current market sentiments.

There can also be some news or some indications from technical indicators or chart patters which may suggest some major moves. Please check and share such observations about about USD-JPY and other currency pairs in the Forex Forum Alerts.

Important tags for outlook posted in the Forex blog: USD/JPY, USD/JPY Analysis, USD/JPY Outlook,  USD/JPY Support and ResistanceUSD/JPY Forecast.

You may also check USD/JPY Correlation with other currency majors

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(For Carry Trades)
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