FX Highlights

  • The USD is trading sharply higher as stock markets decline and investors trim risk exposure, a statement by President Obama that too much debt may lead to a double dip recession appears to be the catalyst for today's gloom about the global recovery, the trade shrugged off positive news from the OECD, the OECD raised its growth forecast for developing economies for 2010, UK retail sales rose more than expected, GBP gains limited by concern about more UK bank lending losses and higher than expected net public borrowing, RBA says lending is picking up, commodity currencies hit hard by weaker equities and declining commodity prices and pessimism about the global recovery
  • Focus turns to today's release of US jobless claims, LEI and Philly Fed and Canada's net foreign investment, leading index and wholesale sales
  • OECD raises its growth forecast, OECD expects global growth to expand by 1.9% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011 says part of USD decline is due to loss of is safe haven demand
  • Japan's Finance Minister says strong JPY hurts exports, and that he never meant to support a rise in the JPY, he went on to say that he is opposed to currency devaluation policy, JPY higher
  • Australia's August AWOTE rose 0.9%, RBA sold AUD307mln in October, RBA says business lending picking up, AUD lower tracking stocks and diminished risk appetite
  • UK October retail sales rose 0.4%, public-sector borrowing rose to 11.419bln, BOE's Fisher said that QE may be paused or expanded at the February policy meeting, UK banks may soon report more credit losses
  • SNB's Hildebrand expects the Swiss economy to expand in Q4, CHF lower
  • German Wiseman see risk of a double dip recession in Germany in late 2010, OECD says the ECB should maintain accommodative policies in 2010
  • Canada's Finance Minister Flaherty says the Canadian economy has not yet recovered
  • President Obama warns that to much US debt could increase the risk of a double dip recession, Treasury Secretary Geithner says the credit crunch is not over
  • Baltic freight index is trading hit a new high for 2009 high, a positive sign for the global recovery
  • California's budget gap may reach 21bln over the next year an a half
  • One million laid off workers may loose jobless benefits in January if Congress does not act to extend benefits
  • US equity markets set to open sharply lower, European equities 1% lower, Nikkei closed 127 points lower

Upcoming Events

  • US - Thursday, initial jobless claims for week ending11/14 will be released expected at 505k compared to 502k last month along with October LEI expected at 0.5% compared to 1% last month and November Philly Fed survey expected at 12.5 compared to 11.5 last month
  • CAN - Thursday, September net foreign investment will be released expected at 3.56bln compared to 5.08bln last month along with October leading index expected at 0.7% compared to 1.1% last month and September wholesale sales expected at 1% compared to 1.5% last month