This is the best time in decades to buy U.S. stocks, according to Elaine Garzarelli, the analyst who famous correctly predicted the stock market crash of October 1987.
Garzarelli, now the president of Garzarelli Capital, thinks stocks are poised to soar largely because the thirteen stock market indicators she monitors are at 71 percent, a very bullish level (a reading at 65 percent or above is bullish, 30 percent or below represents a sell signal or the formation of a major bear market).
She noted that prior to the 1987, her indicators were at 9 percent.
Among other things, Garzarelli cited that industrial production is up 6 percent year-over-year, the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping interest rates low for an extended period, and inflation has not yet become a legitimate concern. Moreover, the government’s extension if tax cuts as well as the investment tax credit for equipment provides more of a boost to investor sentiment.
She also pointed to how quantitative easing (QE) has historically pushed up equity prices. Japan, she noted, enjoyed two big boosts to its stock market following the application of QE during the 2000s.
After Japan’s version of QE1, she said, the Nikkei-225 index gained 50 percent; after the application of QE2 a few years later, the index soared 80 percent. However, after the Japanese central bank ceased quantitative easing, the stock market plunged 50 percent.
“QE helps the stock market, not necessarily the economy,” she cautioned.
Garzarelli especially likes residential construction, export-oriented companies, tech and consumer durables.
She recommended that investors buy the following exchange traded funds: Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLY); Industrial Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLI); Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB) and Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK).