U.S. Unemployment Claims (Weekly) Actual 654K, Expected 665K, Previous 669K
Release Explanation: This report provides the number of people claiming new unemployment benefits and the number of people who are continuing to claim unemployment benefits. Both metrics are provided in weekly and in 4-week moving average form. “Some very important economic forecasts are based on the labor market”, the LFB Trade Team members said. “Economic strength builds from the willingness/confidence of firms to hire, without a strong labor market growth is hard to achieve. Over time the Employment Data will affect all economic releases, it does however take time for labor trends to form”, they added. A currency will strengthen or weaken in-line with the other releases that the Employment Data impacts, rather than as a knee-jerk reaction to these numbers printing. Economists tend to look more at the 4-week numbers because weekly numbers can be volatile although the market reacts to the headline numbers initially.
Trade Desk Thoughts: In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 654,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 674,000. The 4-week moving average was 657,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 658,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.4 percent for the week ending March 28, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.3 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 28 was 5,840,000, an increase of 95,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,745,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,647,500, an increase of 146,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 5,500,750.
The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 4.753 million.
Forex Technical Reaction: The dollar strengthened across the board after the release. The biggest gains came against the pound and Canadian dollar. The euro is trading back below the 1.3300 level but is off the lows of the day. Cable is back below the 1.4700 mark but holding above the 100 day simple moving average. S&P futures are trading much higher as a result of the release.