Jobless claims within the U.S rose last week to 380,000; above median estimates of 355,000, while the prior's week number was revised up to 367,000 hinting a setback in the labor market or at least a pause of the recently seen improvement remains possible. On the other hand, producer price index which is a measure of inflation was steady at 0.0% while the core component which excludes food and energy ticked higher to 0.3% in March from 0.2% in February.
In general; we have seen the U.S. dollar benefiting form the upbeat macroeconomic data recently, thus downside surprises on this front shall put the currency under pressure once again.
The EUR/USD pair continues to push to the upside since yesterday; however with a sluggish pace forming a bearish continuation flag pattern above 1.3030 juncture, while momentum indicators are gradually losing the bullish bias. In general, the pair is trading where we left it yesterday; just below the key resistance at 1.3155-1.3160. A breach above this resistance could negate the flag pattern and send the pair higher towards 1.3250 and 1.3300. While a breach below the ascending resistance of the flag should signal a continuation to 1.3030 and 1.2970.
Cable looks more robust; the pair was able to surpass 1.5925 resistance level, which should turn into a near term support now. We look towards the 1.6000 pivot now followed by 1.0660, the only concern is the bearish divergence seen on RSI as it lags price action; settling back below 1.5900 could put price under pressure again for a possible retest of the 50-days SMA around 1.5820-1.5800 area.
USD/JPY rebounded slightly yesterday after testing the descending support of the declining channel and the 50-days SMA. In general, we remain bullish on the pair over the medium term, however in the short term we may see further attempts to the downside towards this critical area around 80.50 followed by 80.00 , but we view a drop to this area as a potential bullish opportunity intially towards the top channel near 82.00.
Gold looks hesitant around the descending resistance of the falling wedge pattern we mentioned previously. The metal is trading around the trend line since two days failing to rally, we still need further confirmations for any upside move, thus 1665.00 should be taken to look for a retest of the 50-days SMA and the previous swing high around 1700.00. To the downside steady trading below 1645.00 may push price to 1630.00 and 1610.00