USD/CAD - Our outlook on USDCAD remains lower for a move towards the 1.0144 level, its Mar 22'10 low(currently tested) after failing at the 1.0301 level. A cut through there will allow for more downside weakness towards the 1.0100 level, its psycho level ahead of the 1.0059 level, its 2010 low and then its big psycho/parity level at 1.0000. We expect a breather on initial test of that level to turn the pair back up and possibly trigger a corrective recovery higher. However, on a violation of that level, we will be looking for a push towards its July'08 low at 0.9818 and then the 0.9707 level, its Feb'08 low. Its daily stochasticsis bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, to forestall the above from occurring, a decisive clearance of the 1.0219/04 levels and the 1.0301 level, its Mar 26'10 high must be established to create scope for more corrective recovery towards the 1.0320 level, its Mar 11'10 high and then its Feb 22'10 low at 1.0368. A halt should occur and turn the pair back down in line with its larger downtrend at that level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view.

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