Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0396; (P) 1.0448; (R1) 1.0478; More.

USD/CAD's fall from 1.0744 is still in progress and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.0504 minor resistance holds. As noted before, whole consolidations from 1.0851 is still in progress and current fall from 1.0744 is expected to extend to 1.0405 support and below, probably to 100% projection of 1.0851 to 1.0416 from 1.0744 at 1.0298. Nevertheless, downside should be contained above 1.0205 support to conclude such consolidations and bring rise resumption. On the upside, above 1.0504 will turn intraday bias neutral first. But break of 1.0744/80 resistance is needed to confirm that rise from 1.0205 is resuming for 1.1101 resistance. Otherwise, more choppy consolidations should still be seen with risk of another fall.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1101 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.


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