Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0260; (P) 1.0336; (R1) 1.0382; .

USD/CAD's recovery from 1.0251 was brief and the break of 1.0312 minor support suggests that fall from 1.0744 might still be in progress. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for another low below 1.0251. But after all, we'd expect USD/CAD to continue to lose downside momentum and reverse ahead of 1.0205 key support. Above 1.0412 resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Recent price actions from 1.0851 are treated as consolidation to rise from 1.0205 only. Break of 1.0576 will signal that such consolidation might have completed and will turn focus to 1.0744 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.0851 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

USD/CAD