Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0466; (P) 1.0495; (R1) 1.0553;

USD/CAD is losing some upside momentum but intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.0438 minor support holds. CUrrent rise is expected to continue to 1.0744 resistance first. Break there will confirm our bullish view that whole consolidation from 1.0851 has finished with three waves down to 1.0223 too. In such case, rise from 1.0205 should be resuming for 1.0851 and beyond. On the downside, below 1.0438 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 1.0313 resistance turn support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that a medium term bottom is already in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.0851 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

USD/CAD