With USDCAD continuing its weakness and testing the 0.9841 level to close lower on Tuesday, the threat is for an eventual break and hold below the 0.9841 level, its Aug'2012 low. If this occurs, the pair will resume its medium term weakness towards the 0.9800 level. A violation of there will allow for a move lower towards the 0.9700 level, its psycho level and possibly towards the 0.9600 level. Conversely, the only way to prevent these bear threat is for it to decisively break and hold above the 0.9945 level. This if seen could propel it further towards the 1.0000/83 levels. A breach will aim at the 1.0105 level and then the 1.0165 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

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