Economic Events: (GMT)

13:30     USD       Trade Balance                                   -48.4B                   -47.8B

The Trade Balance measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services over the reported period. A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                           

 14:55    USD       Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index     74.3                       75.0

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rates the relative level of current and future economic conditions. There are two versions of this data released two weeks apart, preliminary and revised. The preliminary data tends to have a greater impact. The reading is compiled from a survey of around 500 consumers.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.                          

 17:30    USD       Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (February 2006 - January 2014) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar's value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.

His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.                                                                                                

19:00     USD       Federal Budget Balance                                                -65.2B                   -86.0B  

The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit. 

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

USD/CAD
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2012, Forecast

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis February 10, 2012, Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD is currently trading 0.9947 after opening at 0.9960, like most of the global currencies, it was a day of drastic ups and downs.

Todays activity was all based on the strength and weakness of the greenback. The morning started out with the USD up against its trading partners, based on worries from Greece. The Prime Minister was heading to Brussels without a complete deal. Later in the day, was the Unemployment Initial claims data which is a  good indicator of whether layoffs are rising or falling. They've declined sharply since last summer, meaning that more people are finding work or fewer are losing their jobs.

Jobless claims dropped by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 358,000 in the week ended Feb. 4, the Labor Department said. That's near a four-year low. This was great news for the US as the data supported last weeks data that unemployment had dropped to 8.3% from 8.5%. This news should spur a round of consumer confidence and help spending in the US. This also supports economists statements that the US economy is turning around. The dollar gained on this news, but was weakened by the news on Greece.

Shortly after the release of the economic news, a statement was released from Greece announcing a deal between political parties to support and implement the austerity measures demanded for the bailout. Markets should be fairly quiet on Friday as the crisis seems to be behind us for the time being. Economic data from the US should have some effects on the USD

Also on Friday, Canadian Trade Balance figures are due, the forecast is 0.7 billion, against last months 1.1billion. Historically this report has always been good in Canada. A better then expected report could give the CAD some strength.

Thursdays Economic Reports ( actual v. forecast )

AUD

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

1.00

 
 
 

-3.00

 
 

KRW

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.25%

 

3.25%

 

3.25%

 
 

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

4.5%

 

4.0%

 

4.1%

 
 

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

0.7%

 

0.8%

 

1.7%

 
 

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate 

-19

 

-22

 

-24

 
 

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2%

 

-0.5%

 
 

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

1.0%

 

0.3%

 

-0.1%

 
 

GBP

Trade Balance 

-7.1B

 

-8.4B

 

-8.9B

 
 

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

 

0.50%

 

0.50%

 
 

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00%

 

1.00%

 
 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

358K

 

370K

 

373K

 
 

EUR

ECB Press Conference 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3515K

 

3525K

 

3451K

 
 

MXN

Mexican CPI (YoY) 

4.0%

 

4.0%

 

3.8%

 
 

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate 

-0.2%

 
 
 

-0.2%

 
 

Scheduled Sovereign Bond Sales

Feb 10  11:00  Belgium  OLO auction

USD/CAD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)
 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
0.9869
0.9897
0.9926
0.9954
0.9983
1.0011
1.0040

Fibonacci
0.9897
0.9919
0.9932
0.9954
0.9976
0.9989
1.0011

Camarilla
0.9940
0.9945
0.9950
0.9954
0.9961
0.9966
0.9971

Woodie's
-
0.9898
0.9927
0.9954
0.9984
1.0011
-

DeMark's
-
-
0.9969
0.9947
0.9912
-
-