Analysis and Recommendation

The USD/CAD  is down trading at .9890 falling from 0.9902, this one has me puzzled, with virtually no economic data from the Canadians and fairly positive news in the US, the pair just aren't trading as expected. In the US today, the NFP came in well above forecast and unemployment remained constant at 8.3%. The Trade Deficit widened and this might be the cause and effect of the greenbacks weakness, or investors moving to riskier assets. Crude Oil is also up today and this might be providing the ongoing strength to the CAD.

The U.S. created 227,000 jobs in February and more people found work in the prior two months than previously reported, suggesting the economy's recent momentum is likely to continue.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was unchanged at 8.3% as nearly half-a-million workers reentered the labor force in search of job, the Labor Department reported Friday. That's usually a good sign because it means people believe more work is available.

The increase in nonfarm jobs topped 200,000 for the third straight month, which reinforces the view of an economy gathering strength as 2012 unfolds. The past three months of full-time job growth is the fastest since the end of the recession and marks the best performance since 2006.

The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in January, driven higher by record imports of autos, capital goods and food, government data reported.  The trade gap expanded 4.3% in January to $52.6 billion from $50.4 billion in December.

The deal is done, finally. Greece finished their debt swap with private creditors. Bondholders representing some 85% of Greece's outstanding private-sector debt, well above the government's minimum threshold, have agreed to the swap, easing pressures on the eurozone.

Conditions are in place for Greece to get its second bailout, said Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker in a statement released Friday. I welcome the significant progress achieved in the preparation of the second Greek adjustment program, said Juncker, after a teleconference between euro-zone finance ministers on Friday

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Economic Releases actual v. forecast

Mar. 09

 

AUD

 
 
Trade Balance

-0.67B

 

1.51B

 

1.33B

 
 

 

 

CNY

 
 
Chinese CPI (YoY)

3.2%

 

3.6%

 

4.5%

 
 

 

 

CNY

 
 
Chinese PPI (YoY)

0.1%

 

0.0%

 

0.7%

 
 

 

 

CNY

 
 
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)

21.5%

 

19.6%

 

23.8%

 
 

 

 

CNY

 
 
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)

11.4%

 

12.4%

 

12.8%

 
 

 

 

CNY

 
 
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)

14.7%

 

17.4%

 

18.1%

 
 

 

 

EUR

 
 
German CPI (MoM)

0.7%

 

0.7%

 

0.7%

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
Industrial Production (MoM)

-0.4%

 

0.4%

 

0.4%

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
Manufacturing Production (MoM)

0.1%

 

0.4%

 

1.1%

 
 

 

 

GBP

 
 
PPI Input (MoM)

2.1%

 

0.7%

 

0.1%

 
 

Upcoming Economic Events

06:45 EUR French CPI (MoM)

The French Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

 08:15 CHF PPI (MoM)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

09:30 GBP Current Account

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the GBP.

19:00 USD Federal Budget Balance

The Federal Budget Balance measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and expenditure during the reported month. A positive number indicates a budget surplus; a negative number indicates a deficit.

 Government Bond Auction Schedule (this week)

Mar 12 10:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn new Sep 2012 Bubill

Mar 12 18:00 US Auctions 3Y Notes

Mar 13 09:30 Netherlands Eur 2.5bn-3.5bn re-opened Apr 2015 DSL

Mar 13 10:10 Italy BOT auction

Mar 13 10:30 Belgium Auctions 3 & 12M T-bills

Mar 13 15:30 UK Details gilt auction on Mar 22

Mar 13 18:00 US Auctions 10Y Notes

Mar 14 10:10 Italy BTP/CCTeu auction

Mar 14 10:10 Sweden Auctions T-bills

Mar 14 10:30 Swiss Bond auction

Mar 14 15:30 Sweden Details nominal bond exchange auction on Mar 21

Mar 14 18:00 US Auctions 30Y Bonds

Mar 15 09:30 Spain Obligacion auction

Mar 15 09:50 France BTAN auction

Mar 15 10.30 UK Auctions 4.5% 2042 conventional Gilt

Mar 15 10:50 France OATi auction

Mar 15 16:00 US Announces auction of 10Y TIPS on Mar 22

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USD/CAD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 Name  S3  S2  S1  Pivot  R1  R2  R3

 Classic
0.9797
0.9834
0.9863
0.9900
0.9929
0.9966
0.9995

 Fibonacci
0.9834
0.9860
0.9875
0.9900
0.9926
0.9941
0.9966

 Camarilla
0.9873
0.9879
0.9885
0.9900
0.9897
0.9903
0.9909

 Woodie's
-
0.9832
0.9858
0.9898
0.9924
0.9964
-

 DeMark's
-
-
0.9914
0.9893
0.9848
-
-