USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis March 20, 2012, Forecast

on March 19 2012 6:04 PM

Analysis and Recommendations:

The USD/CAD  is trading down following the common trend today. The pair have fallen in early trading dropping to 0.9869 from the opening at 0.9912. The USD has just lost steam around the world today, it began in late day trading on Friday as confident investors began to move into more risk securities and equities.

There has been little in the way of economic data, with Canadian Wholesale Prices coming in below forecast, and in the US, confidence by builders of new single-family homes remained unchanged in March. Sentiment for builders of new single-family homes stayed at the highest level in close to five years.

Improvements in U.S. job market trends and an upward revision in income growth are important factors that could help the housing market turn a corner, though rising gasoline prices may pose a hurdle, according to mortgage company Fannie Mae (FNMA).

This should be a quiet week for the duo, with little information or market news expected. Although with two housing reports due on Tuesday, strong data might give a push to the greenback.

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Economic Data for March 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

GBP

 
 
 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

1.6%

 
 
 

4.1% 

 
 

 

AUD

 
 
 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Current Account 

4.5B

 

4.3B 

 

3.4B 

 
 

 

EUR

 
 
 

Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM) 

-7.4%

 

-3.8% 

 

5.2% 

 
 

 

CLP

 
 
 

Chilean GDP (YoY) 

4.5%

 

4.2% 

 

3.7% 

 
 

 

CAD

 
 
 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

0.4% 

 

1.0% 

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

NAHB Housing Market Index 

28

 

30 

 

28 

 
 

 

USD

 
 
 

3-Month Bill Auction 

0.095%

 
 
 

0.095% 

 
 

 

Economic Events Scheduled for March 20, 2012 Europe and Americas

09:15     CHF         Industrial Production (QoQ)

Industrial Production measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.                                                                                       

10:30     GBP      Core CPI (YoY)

10:30     GBP      CPI (YoY)

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.                                       

12:00     GBP      CBI Industrial Trends Orders

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Orders measures the economic expectations of the manufacturing executives in the U.K. It is a leading indicator of business conditions. A level above zero indicates order volume is expected to increase; a level below zero indicates expectations are for lower volumes. The reading is compiled from a survey of about 550 manufacturers.                                                                                                       

13:30     USD      Building Permits            

Building Permits measures the change in the number of new building permits issued by the government. Building permits are a key indicator of demand in the housing market.                      

13:30     USD      Housing Starts

Housing starts measures the change in the annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the reported month. It is a leading indicator of strength in the housing sector.

 

Government Bond Auctions (this week)

Mar 21  10:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Mar 21  10:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Mar 2014 Schatz

Mar 21  10:30  Portugal  Eur 0.75-1.0bn 4 & 6M T-bills

Mar 22  10:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Mar 22  10.30  UK  Auctions 0.625% 2042 I/L Gilt

Mar 22  15:00  US

Announces auctions of 2Y Notes on Mar 27, 5Y Notes on Mar

28 & 7Y Notes on Mar 29

USD/CAD Pivot Points (Time Frame: 1 Day)

 

Name S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3

Classic
0.9773
0.9816
0.9845
0.9888
0.9917
0.9960
0.9989

Fibonacci
0.9816
0.9844
0.9861
0.9888
0.9916
0.9933
0.9960

Camarilla
0.9853
0.9860
0.9866
0.9888
0.9880
0.9886
0.9893

Woodie's
-
0.9812
0.9837
0.9884
0.9909
0.9956
-

DeMark's
-
-
0.9902
0.9881
0.9830
-
-

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