Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0275; (P) 1.0309; (R1) 1.0367; More.

USD/CAD's rebound from 1.0251 extends further today and the break of 1.0382 minor resistance argues that fall from 1.0744 has possibly completed on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside for 1.0576 resistance next. As noted before, recent price actions from 1.0851 are treated as consolidation to rise from 1.0205 only. Break of 1.0576 will signal that such consolidation might have completed and will turn focus to 1.0744 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 1.0312 minor support will delay the bullish view and argue that another fall to below 1.0251 might still be seen. But after all, we'd expect whole correction pattern from 1.0851 should conclude above 1.0205 support and bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.0851 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

USD/CAD