USD/CAD's break of 1.1818 support confirms that decline from 1.3005 has resumed. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 1.1999 minor resistance holds. fall from 1.3005, which is treated as part of consolidation from 1.3015, is expected to extend further to retest lower side of medium term range at 1.1464. On the upside, above 1.1999 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But break of 1.2345 is needed to confirm fall from 1.3005 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk remains on the downside.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation of completion of medium term up trend from 0.9056 yet. Such rise is expected to be developing into a five wave sequence (1.0378, 0.9823, 1.3015, ......) Though, recent development, with weekly MACD crossed below signal line, suggests that consolidation from 1.3015, which should be the fourth wave consolidation, is still in progress. Another fall could be seen to 1.1464 support and below. Though downside is expected to be contained by 50% retracement of 0.9823 to 1.3015 at 1.1419 and bring medium term up trend resumption. Above 1.3005/15 will pave the way towards 61.8% retracement of 1.6196 to 0.9056 at 1.3469 before making a medium term top.

On the downside, however, decisive break of 1.1419 will dampen this view and argue that a medium term top is possibly in place at 1.3015 already and much deeper decline could then be seen back to support zone of 0.9709/1.0378.