USDCAD: Having cut through its strong supports at the 1.0219/04 levels established in Oct'2009 and Jan' 2010 the past week after many months of price hesitation, threats of a return to parity (1.0000) has now increased. This is premised on its continued weakness which saw it selling off through its psycho level at 1.0100 today. We envisage that level will present a significant support and should turn off the pair on initial test but while it holds firmly below the 1.0219/04 levels, we look for the 1.0000 level to eventually break and drive USDCAD towards its July'08 low at 0.9818 with a break of there setting the stage for further declines towards the 0.9707 level, its Feb'08 low and ultimately its 2007 low at 0.9056. Its weekly and monthly RSI are bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, on any recovery higher from its current price levels, the pair should target its support turned resistance at the 1.0219/04 levels where a reversal of roles is expected to push it back down. Further out, the 1.0320 level, its Mar 11'10 high and its Feb 22'10 low at 1.0368 come in as the next upside targets.In a nutshell, the journey to parity (1.0000) continues to develop having broken and held below the 1.0219/04 levels to resume its broader medium term downtrend.

width=400