We continue to hold our downside bias on USDCAD despite its attempt at recovering higher. In case that recovering occurs, we expect it to be capped at the 0.9809 level, its Feb 17'2011 low. This level should reverse roles and provide resistance thus turning the pair back lower in the direction of its long-term downtrend. This should see USDCAD attacking its Mar 01'2011 low at 0.9682 with a convincing break of this level extending further weakness towards its psycho level at 0.9600 and then the 0.9500 level. On the upside, in case of a break of the 0.9809 level, its Feb 17'2011 low occurs, further upside risk will develop towards the 0.9902 level, Feb 15'2010. All in all, the pair continues to retain its broader long-term bearishness.

USDCAD