USD/CAD was bounded in range of 0.9910/1.0029 last week as sideway consolidations from 1.0029 continued. Such development suggests that rebound from 0.9836 is possibly still in progress. Break of 1.0029 will bring another rise towards 1.0207 resistance next. On the downside, however, below 0.9910 will flip bias back to the downside for 0.9836 and below instead. Though, we'd expect further loss of downside momentum in case of another fall and maintain bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Strong support should be seen at 61.8% projection of 1.0671 to 0.9979 from 1.0207 at 0.9779 to bring a sizeable rebound.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term fall from 1.0363 (2009 high) is still in progress and such down trend should continue to 0.9709 support first and possibly further towards 2007 low of 0.9056. Nevertheless, fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. Though, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.