USD/CAD's down trend resumed after brief recovery and reached as low as 0.9772 last week, breaking mentioned 61.8% projection of 1.0671 to 0.9979 from 1.0207 at 0.9779. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper fall should be seen towards 0.9709 support next. As noted before, we'd still seeing bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and thus, we're anticipating strong support from 0.9709 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9827 minor resistance will flip bias back to the upside and turn focus back to 0.9957 resistance. However, note that sustained break of 0.9709 will invalidate this view and target 0.9056 key support level instead.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term fall from 1.0363 (2009 high) is still in progress and such down trend should continue to 0.9709 support first and possibly further towards 2007 low of 0.9056. Nevertheless, fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective and hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9056/9709 to contain downside and bring another medium term rise. Though, break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm medium term reversal. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.