USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

By Roger Baettig | August 20 2011 10:30 AM

USD/CAD's rally attempt from 0.9774 last week failed at 0.9938 and retreated sharply again. The development argues that the consolidation pattern from 1.0009 is possibly still in progress and initial bias is neutral this week. The overall outlook remains unchanged though. We'd expect consolidation from 1.0009 to be contained by 0.9741 support and bring rally resumption eventually. Break of 1.0009 will resuming the whole rise from 0.9406. Also, note again that sustained trading above 0.9912 resistance will confirm double bottom reversal pattern (0.9444, 0.94056) and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0851 to 0.9406 at 1.0299. However, Nevertheless, below 0.9741 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 0.9406 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is possibly formed at 0.9406 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise is in favor for a test on key resistance level at 1.0851 and break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063. However, failure to sustain above 0.9912, followed by break of 0.9741 minor support, will dampen this bullish case and argue that down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.9406.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

USD/CAD