USD/CAD's triangle consolidation from 1.0009 continued last week and outlook remains unchanged for the moment. Initial bias remains neutral this week and more consolidative trading would be seen. But in case of another fall, downside is expected to be contained by 0.9741 support and bring rally resumption eventually. Break of 0.9938 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside or 1.0009 first and then 61.8% retracement of 1.0851 to 0.9406 at 1.0299. Nevertheless, below 0.9741 will dampen this bullish view and turn focus back to 0.9406 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is possibly formed at 0.9406 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise is in favor for a test on key resistance level at 1.0851 and break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063. However, failure to sustain above 0.9912, followed by break of 0.9741 minor support, will dampen this bullish case and argue that down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.9406.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

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