USD/CAD's consolidation from 1.0009 continued last week with a dip to 0.9725 but quickly rebounded. Current development suggests that such consolidation is possibly finished already. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for retesting 1.0009 first. Break will confirm resumption of whole rise from 0.9406 and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.0851 to 0.9406 at 1.0299. However, break of 0.9725 will now dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 0.9406 instead.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is possibly formed at 0.9406 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise is in favor for a test on key resistance level at 1.0851 and break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063. However, sustained trading below 55 days EMA (now at 0.9743) will dampen this bullish case and argue that down trend from 1.3063 (2009 high) is still in progress for another low below 0.9406.

In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term corrective pattern.

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