USD/CAD had an extremely volatile week, first dropped to as low as 1.0670, then rebounded strongly to 1.0957 before retreating back to middle of the range. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more pull back might be seen. But after all, as long as 1.0670 support holds, we're still favoring the case that USD/CAD has already bottomed out at 1.0590 after missing a key medium term fibonacci level. Above 1.0957 will target 1.1101 next. However, note that a break of 1.0670 will dampen this bullish view and raise the possibility that another low below 1.0590 would be seen before USD/CAD bottoms.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.3063 is treated as correction to the five wave rally from 0.9056 (07 low). Such decline is possibly completed at 1.0590 on bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD, after missing 61.8% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.3063 at 1.0587. Break of 1.1101 resistance will add much credence to this case and turn focus to 1.1723 resistance for confirmation USD/CAD has bottomed out in medium term. On the downside, considering that USD/CAD is still trading below 55 days EMA, another fall cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as correction from 1.3063 is expected to conclude inside 1.0297/0819 support zone.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.3063 is treated as correction in the larger up trend only and will likely be contained by mentioned 1.0297/1.0819 support zone, with 61.8% retracement of 0.9056 to 1.3063 at 1.0587 inside. We'd expect at least another medium term rally to above 1.3063 before completing the rise from 0.9056. We'll hold on to this view as long as 1.0297 support holds.