USD/CAD's choppy rise from 1.0405 extends to 1.0744 last week and the break of near term falling trend line argues that consolidations from 1.0851 has completed already. However, this was not confirmed by a break 1.0748 resistance yet. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen. Nevertheless, another rise would still be in favor as long as 1.0570 minor support holds. A break of 1.0748 will affirm the bullish case that rise from 1.0205 is resuming for 1.0851 resistance and 1.1101 resistance next. On the downside, though, a break below 1.0570 will indicate that consolidations from 1.0851 is still in progress and delay the bullish case.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.1101 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.

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