USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

By IBTimes Staff Reporter | January 09 2010 6:29 PM

USD/CAD's fall extended further to 1.0296 last week as correction from 1.0851 continued. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline could still be seen. Nevertheless, we'd expect the pair to continue to lose downside momentum in next fall and downside should be contained above 1.0205 to conclude the correction from 1.0851 and bring reversal. Above 1.0408 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 1.0576 resistance will suggest that rise from 1.0205 is resuming for another high above 1.0851 resistance.

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In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom might be in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.0851 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.

In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.

USD/CAD