USD/CAD edged lower to 1.0223 last week but continued to lose downside momentum as it approaches 1.0205 key support, as seen in bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Nevertheless, another fall could still be seen as long as 1.0412 resistance holds. As noted before, price actions from 1.0851 are treated as consolidation to rise from 1.0205 only. Hence, even in case of another fall, we'd expect further loss of momentum and downside should be contained above 1.0205 key support and bring reversal. On the upside, above 1.0412 resistance will be the first signal that correction from 1.0851 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 1.0744 resistance for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that a medium term bottom is already in place at 1.0205 with bullish convergence conditions in daily MACD. As noted before, fall from 1.3063 is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056. Such correction might have already completed with three waves down to 1.0205 already (1.0784, 1.1732, 1.0205). Break of 1.0851 resistance will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 will invalidate this view and bring down trend resumption to parity instead.
In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.