USD/CAD's pull-back from 1.0779 was deeper than expected and dropped to as low as 1.0479 last week. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction to rise from 1.0223. While more decline might be seen, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 1.0223 to 1.0779 at 1.0435 to conclude the correction and bring rally resumption. Above 1.0609 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside retesting 1.0779 first.

In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that whole medium term fall from 1.3063, which is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056, has completed at 1.0205 already. Break of 1.0851 will confirm this case by completing a double bottom reversal pattern (1.0205, 1.0223). In such case stronger rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. Also, in such case, we'll tentatively treat rise from 1.0205 as resumption of the whole up trend from 2007 low of 0.9056 and focus on the structure of the rise from 1.0205 for confirmation. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1.0223 support holds.

In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD