USD/CAD's rise from 0.9891 extended further to as high as 1.0522 last week. Even though upside momentum has been diminishing with 5 hours MACD staying below signal line, further rise could remain in favor as long as 1.0265 resistance turned support holds. Current rebound would attempt to target a retest on 1.0656 resistance next. Break there will resume the whole rebound from 0.9406 and target medium term retracement level at 1.0803. On the downside, though, break of 1.0265 support will indicate that rebound from 0.9891 is finished and should flip bias back to the downside for this support and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9406 are viewed as corrective in nature. It should either be corrective the down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 or be part of the consolidation pattern from 2007 low of 0.9056. The first leg of the rise from 0.9406 should have completed at 1.0656. Current development suggests that the second leg might have completed at 0.9891 too. Break of 1.0656 will now likely send USD/CAD through 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9406 at 1.0803. On the downside, break of 0.9891 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound from 0.9406. Otherwise, outlook will remain cautiously bullish.

In the longer term picture, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed even though bullish convergence condition was seen in monthly MACD. Current development dampens the case that fall from 1.3063 is resuming the such down trend. But there is no change in the long term bearish view so far. A break of 0.9056 low is still anticipated after all the consolidative price actions complete.

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