USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

By IBTimes Staff Reporter | February 20 2010 4:37 PM

USD/CAD's fall from 1.0779 extended further last week after brief recovery was limited by 4 hours 55 EMA. Further decline is still expected as long as 1.0529 resistance holds. Fall from 1.0779 would continue towards 1.0205/23 support zone. On the upside, break of 1.0529 will indicate that fall from 1.0779 has possibly completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for testing this resistance first.

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In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that whole medium term fall from 1.3063, which is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056, has completed at 1.0205 already. But a break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm this case. In such case stronger rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 low will invalidate this view and target parity instead.

In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.

USD/CAD