USD/CAD's strong rally last week suggests that fall form 1.0779 is completed at 1.0369 already. Nevertheless, such rise was limited at 1.0679 and the pair retreated. Initial bias is neutral this week and we'd expect some sideway consolidations first. Strong support is anticipated at around 1.0509 to contain downside of the consolidation. Break of 1.0679 will bring rally resumption to 1.0779 and then 100% projection of 1.0223 to 1.0779 from 1.0369 at 1.0925 next.

In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that whole medium term fall from 1.3063, which is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056, has completed at 1.0205 already. But a break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm this case. In such case stronger rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 low will invalidate this view and target parity instead.

In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD