USD/CAD dropped sharply to as low as 1.0259 last week but began to lost momentum after hitting 100% projection of 1.0779 to 1.0369 from 1.0679 at 1.0269. At this moment, we're treating price actions from 1.0851 as sideway consolidation pattern with fall from 1.0779 as the third leg. Hence, while further decline might still be seen, we'd expect strong support from 1.0205/0223 support zone to conclude the fall from 1.0779 as well as the consolidation from 1.0851 to bring rebound. Above 1.0366 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside and target 1.0679 resistance first.
In the bigger picture, we're still favoring the case that whole medium term fall from 1.3063, which is viewed as a correction to long term rise from 0.9056, has completed at 1.0205 already. But a break of 1.0851 resistance is needed to confirm this case. In such case stronger rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 at least. On the downside, however, break of 1.0205 low will invalidate this view and target parity instead.
In the longer term picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.3063 to 1.0205 revived the case that it's a correction to rise from 0.9056. Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 1.0205 at 1.1971 will indicate that whole rise from 0.9056 might be resuming for another high above 1.3063.