USD/CAD dropped to as low as 1.0062 last week but lost momentum ahead of mentioned target of 161.8% projection of 1.0779 to 1.0369 from 1.0679 at 1.0016. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, a short term bottom might be seen in place and some consolidations would possibly be seen in near term. But break of 1.0369 support turned resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CAD has bottomed. Otherwise, recent fall is still expected to continue. Below 1.0062 will target a test on 1.0 psychological level next.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in progress. It's unclear whether such fall is resuming the long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) or it's part of a consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). In either case, fall from 1.3063 is now expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444 next. On the upside, break of 1.0779 resistance is needed to be the first signal that fall from 1.3063 is finished. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
In the longer term picture, while long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) has made an important low at 0.9056, the sustained trading below 55 months EMA again argues that the long term trend has not reversed yet. Fall from 1.3063 is either resuming the long term down trend or is part of a sideway consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). We'll stay neutral for the moment until the fall from 1.3063 finally confirms whether it's impulsive or corrective in nature.