USD/CAD's recovery from 1.0062 extended further to 1.0302 last week and further rise might still be see. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's merely a correction in the larger fall. Hence, upside should be limited by 1.0369 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.0169 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.0062 low first and then parity.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in progress. It's unclear whether such fall is resuming the long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) or it's part of a consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). In either case, fall from 1.3063 is now expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444 next. On the upside, break of 1.0779 resistance is needed to be the first signal that fall from 1.3063 is finished. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, while long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) has made an important low at 0.9056, the sustained trading below 55 months EMA again argues that the long term trend has not reversed yet. Fall from 1.3063 is either resuming the long term down trend or is part of a sideway consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). We'll stay neutral for the moment until the fall from 1.3063 finally confirms whether it's impulsive or corrective in nature.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD