USD/CAD's fall was contained at 1.0075 last week and rebounded strongly. The development indicates that fall from 1.0422 is finished. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0417). After all, USD/CAD is still bounded inside converging range since 1.0656. Firstly, as long as 1.0051 support holds, we'd favor an eventual upside breakout. But secondly, break of 1.0422 is needed to be the first signal of breakout and target a test on 1.0656 high. Otherwise, near term outlook will remain neutral for more choppy sideway trading.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is in place at 0.9406 and price actions from there could either be consolidation to fall from 1.3063 or the third leg of the whole consolidation pattern from 2007 low of 0.9056. We're favoring neither case as USD/CAD is holding above 55 week EMA but limited below 55 month EMA. Having said, firstly, we'd expect 0.9406 to hold for a while at least. Secondly, the eventual pattern of the price actions from 1.0656 would decide whether rebound from 0.9406 is going to extend higher, or USD/CAD is just gyrating in range. We'll stay neutral first until the pattern from 1.0656 finishes.
In the longer term picture, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed even though bullish convergence condition was seen in monthly MACD. Current development dampens the case that fall from 1.3063 is resuming the such down trend. But there is no change in the long term bearish view so far. A break of 0.9056 low is still anticipated after all the consolidative price actions complete.