USD/CAD reached as low as 0.9976 last week but drew support from parity and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week and some more consolidations would probably be seen. But after all, break of 1.0302 resistance is needed to indicate that USD/CAD has bottomed. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish and more decline is still in favor. Below 0.9976 will target 0.9823 support next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in progress. It's unclear whether such fall is resuming the long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) or it's part of a consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). In either case, fall from 1.3063 is now expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444 next. On the upside, break of 1.0779 resistance is needed to be the first signal that fall from 1.3063 is finished. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, while long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) has made an important low at 0.9056, the sustained trading below 55 months EMA again argues that the long term trend has not reversed yet. Fall from 1.3063 is either resuming the long term down trend or is part of a sideway consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). We'll stay neutral for the moment until the fall from 1.3063 finally confirms whether it's impulsive or corrective in nature.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD

USD/CAD