USD/CAD was bounded in range above 0.9929 last week. With daily MACD staying above signal line, a short term bottom should be in place. Rebound from 0.9929 would be in favor to extend further towards 38.2% retracement of 1.0779 to 0.9929 at 1.0254 this week. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.0454. Nevertheless, a break of 1.0012 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside and turn focus back to 0.9929 low instead.
In the bigger picture, with 1.0779 resistance intact, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in favor to continue and would probably target 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444. However, note that the structure of such fall from 1.3063 is still looking corrective. Hence, the most bearish case might be that it's the second leg of consolidation that started at 2007 low of 0.9056. Hence, we'd expect strong support between 0.9444 and 0.9056 to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 1.0779 will in turn indicate that fall from 1.3063 has completed and will turn outlook bullish for 1.1723 resistance and above.
In the longer term picture, while long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) has made an important low at 0.9056, the sustained trading below 55 months EMA again argues that the long term trend has not reversed yet. Fall from 1.3063 is either resuming the long term down trend or is part of a sideway consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). We'll stay neutral for the moment until the fall from 1.3063 finally confirms whether it's impulsive or corrective in nature.