USD/CAD dropped sharply to as low as 1.0109 last week but rebounded since then. A temporary low should be in place and initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 61.8% retracement of 1.0734 to 1.0109 at 1.0495 first. Break will target a retest of 1.0734 high. On the downside, below 1.0109 will turn focus back to 0.9929 low again.
In the bigger picture, while the rebound from 0.9929 to 1.0734 was strong, it was limited below mentioned 1.0779 resistance and thus, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal. Break of 0.9929 low will indicate that whole down trend from 1.3063 has resumed and should target 0.9823 medium term support next. On the upside, note that break of 1.0779 will confirm that fall from 1.3063 has completed and stronger rebound should be seen towards 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term sideway pattern. Hence even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support above 2007 low of 0.9056 to contain down side. On the other hand, another strong medium term rise should be seen after fall from 1.3063 completes and such rise should target a test on the upper side of the long term range near to 1.3063.