USD/CAD rebounded strongly to as high as 1.0748 last week but lost momentum again ahead of 1.0779 resistance and retreated. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway consolidations might be seen. Nevertheless, another rise would remain mildly in favor as long as 1.0437 resistance turned support holds. Note that decisive break of 1.0779 resistance will confirm medium term bottoming and should target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 next. However, below 1.0437 minor support will indicate that recent price actions from 0.9929 are possibly just consolidations in the larger down trend and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.0109 support first.
In the bigger picture, with 1.0779 resistance intact, there is no confirmation of medium term reversal yet. Whole down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 might still continue and below 0.9929 low will target 2008 low of 0.9056. However, note that break of 1.0779 will confirm that fall from 1.3063 has completed and stronger rebound should be seen towards 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 and above.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term sideway pattern. Therefore, even in case of another fall, we'd expect strong support above 2007 low of 0.9056 to contain down side. On the other hand, another strong medium term rise should be seen after fall from 1.3063 completes and such rise should target a test on the upper side of the long term range near to 1.3063.