Despite dipping to 1.0332, USD/CAD drew support from mentioned zone of near term rising trend line (now at 1.0298) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0109 to 1.0851 at 1.0392 and rebounded strongly as expected. The break of 1.0571 resistance indicates that pull back from 1.0851 is completed. Initial bias will remain on the upside this week for a retest on 1.0851 first. Break will confirm that whole rise from 0.9929 has resumed and should target next key level of 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126. On the downside, break of 1.0332 support is needed to invalidate this view. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bullish.
In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom is formed at 0.9929 already, with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. We'd stay bullish in USD/CAD and expect the rebound from 0.9929 to target 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 first, with prospect of extending further to 61.8% retracement at 1.1866 and above. On the downside, however, break of 1.0332 will in turn argue that rebound from 0.9929 has completed already and turn focus back to this low.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term sideway pattern. The second leg of such pattern should have completed at 0.9929 and third leg should have just started towards 1.3063 high.