USD/CAD's strong rebound and single week reversal last week argues that fall from 1.0851 might be completed with three waves down toe 1.0138 already. The corrective structure in turn suggests that rise from 0.9929 is not finished yet. Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading might be seen first. But downside should be contained well above 1.0138 and bring another rise. Above 1.0468 will target 1.0678 resistance next. Break will confirm our bullish view and target a new high above 1.0851. However, below 1.0138 will invalidate this case and turn focus back to 1.0109 support.
In the bigger picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.0851 to 1.0138 suggests that it's corrective in nature and revive the case that whole rebound from 0.9929 is not completed. Break of 1.0678 will affirm this bullish case and bring target 1.0851 and then 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 first, with prospect of extending further to 61.8% retracement at 1.1866 and above. However, note again that break of 1.0109 support will shift favor back to the case that 0.9929 is not the bottom yet. Though, considering bullish convergence conditions in daily and weekly MACD, we believe that medium term decline from 1.3063 is going to reverse soon, probably after a brief break of 0.9929 low. Hence, focus will be on reversal signal on next fall.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term sideway pattern.