USD/CAD's strong rebound last week indicates that corrective fall from 1.0851 has completed at 1.0138 already. Such rebound stalled ahead of 1.0678 resistance and turned sideway. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first. But in case of another fall , downside should be contained by 1.0319/0468 support zone and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0678 will target 1.0851 high first.
In the bigger picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.0851 to 1.0138 suggests that it's corrective in nature and revives the case that whole rebound from 0.9929 is not completed. Break of 1.0678 will affirm this bullish case and target 1.0851 and then 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 first, with prospect of extending further to 61.8% retracement at 1.1866 and above. However, note again that break of 1.0138 support will shift favor back to the case that 0.9929 is not the bottom yet. Though, considering bullish convergence conditions in daily and weekly MACD, we believe that medium term decline from 1.3063 is going to reverse soon, probably after a brief break of 0.9929 low. Hence, focus will be on reversal signal even in case of another fall.
In the longer term picture, firstly, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed. Secondly, the medium term fall from 1.3063 is so far looking corrective. Hence, we're slightly favoring the case that price actions from 0.9056 are developing into a long term sideway pattern.