USD/CAD gyrated around mid point of recent range of 0.9841/1.0028 last week. Outlook remains unchanged. We're slightly favoring the case that fall from 1.0522 is finished at 0.9841 on mild bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Above 1.0028 resistance will affirm this case and target upper trend line resistance (now at 1.0224 first). On the downside, though, below 0.9841 will invalidate this view and extend the choppy fall from 1.0656 to 0.9725 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9406 medium term bottom could either be consolidation to fall from 1.3063 or the third leg of the whole consolidation pattern from 2007 low of 0.9056. We're favoring neither case for the moment. Firstly, we'd expect 0.9406 to hold for a while at least. Secondly, the eventual pattern of the price actions from 1.0656 would decide whether rebound from 0.9406 is going to extend higher, or USD/CAD is just gyrating in range. We'll stay neutral first until the pattern from 1.0656 finishes.

In the longer term picture, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed even though bullish convergence condition was seen in monthly MACD. Current development dampens the case that fall from 1.3063 is resuming the such down trend. But there is no change in the long term bearish view so far. A break of 0.9056 low is still anticipated after all the consolidative price actions complete.