We're favoring the case that fall from 1.0522 is finished at 0.9841 on mild bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 100% projection of 0.9841 to 1.0028 from 0.9860 at 1.0047 and then 161.8% projection at 1.0163. However, break of 0.9860 support will invalidate our bullish view and should extend the fall fro 1.0522 towards 0.9725 support instead.

In the bigger picture, firstly, 0.9406 is a medium term bottom and rise from there is not finished yet. secondly, current development suggest that rally from 0.9406 is set to resume soon for 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9406 at 1.0803 and above. After all, price actions from 0.9406 medium term bottom could either be consolidation to fall from 1.3063 or the third leg of the whole consolidation pattern from 2007 low of 0.9056. In either case, stronger rally is anticipated in medium term.

In the longer term picture, there is no clear indication that the long term down trend from 2002 high of 1.6196 has reversed even though bullish convergence condition was seen in monthly MACD. Current development dampens the case that fall from 1.3063 is resuming the such down trend. But there is no change in the long term bearish view so far. A break of 0.9056 low is still anticipated after all the consolidative price actions complete.